Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 8.965441 10.307556 11.754017 13.425390 15.299834 17.333520 19.703223
2025-11-30 7.059728 8.886643 11.009570 13.644559 16.812034 20.480904 25.034870
2025-12-07 6.160338 8.218599 10.727412 13.983508 18.067708 22.988784 29.330821
2025-12-14 5.247351 7.391738 10.124030 13.818195 18.633693 24.644251 32.652109
2025-12-21 4.384782 6.493786 9.292119 13.217947 18.514389 25.334593 34.689440
2025-12-28 4.018922 6.212229 9.224289 13.583208 19.634593 27.629884 38.860778
2026-01-04 3.675063 5.914419 9.090391 13.820831 20.563073 29.682651 42.772312
2026-01-11 3.284000 5.500636 8.745807 13.717307 20.986160 31.042546 45.777807
2026-01-18 2.939926 5.118212 8.405972 13.579566 21.328393 32.278351 48.634734
2026-01-25 2.675927 4.831581 8.179651 13.581337 21.854044 33.773994 51.895079
2026-02-01 2.468341 4.613453 8.036261 13.689052 22.527423 35.493392 55.525738
2026-02-08 2.242921 4.341442 7.782175 13.598923 22.882685 36.746078 58.507935
2026-02-15 2.025179 4.064873 7.504246 13.459506 23.165344 37.921696 61.458634
2026-02-22 1.873166 3.889572 7.379509 13.557356 23.821183 39.683753 65.355332
2026-03-01 1.784806 3.820789 7.427665 13.939006 24.941787 42.192912 70.468569
2026-03-08 1.615720 3.581531 7.157659 13.758288 25.126469 43.239788 73.351734
2026-03-15 1.405454 3.238469 6.672110 13.165791 24.584358 43.098168 74.349358
2026-03-22 1.346363 3.192419 6.725757 13.527784 25.670243 45.607592 79.633594
2026-03-29 1.275596 3.114648 6.712716 13.765299 26.548027 47.804336 84.482838
2026-04-05 1.169888 2.951269 6.522240 13.661875 26.819690 49.004038 87.744283
2026-04-12 1.070241 2.789941 6.322095 13.524713 27.019008 50.082153 90.832102
2026-04-19 0.994074 2.672760 6.200157 13.526444 27.463628 51.584635 94.666023
2026-04-26 0.934537 2.587350 6.135790 13.633793 28.102253 53.436515 99.139246